The Independent candidates Euphoria in August polls

The Just concluded Jubilee and Nasa-affiliate party primaries are a lesson for many.

Fallout, heartbreaks, pain, tears and to some happiness was the order of the day. 

Many people had their hopes and dreams tarnished by the nomination exercises which have led almost 2000 aspirants seek solace with the people by going independent.

However the determining factor will be the voter come August 8 when we have the General election. That said, a few factors may work in the favour of aspirants who decide to follow their own paths and ignore the parties which they say have failed them.

What key factors could tilt this election?

People making long queues. Photo/COURTESY

1. The last blow of an angry voter.
There is general disquiet among the electorate that the just concluded primaries were not free and fair. A significant chunk of them are dissatisfied with the choice of candidates, defeating the purpose of running a primary.

There is also a sense that power has slipped out of their hands and that their way of doing things is no longer how things are being done. They have this feeling that personalities within government manipulated the exercise in order to impose leaders on them with the 2022 General Elections game plan in play. It is no longer a hidden secret that many voters are now sharply criticising their parties for shambolic primaries.

This silent revolt might eventually culminate into a revolt by voters leading to them voting against the grain come August 8.

2. Riding on the victim card.
The easiest route to win votes for those who lost in the just concluded primaries is by perfectly playing the ‘victim card’. Candidates who will perfectly do their calculations well and ride on a sympathy wave generated by news of being victims of not being the system’s favourite boys might get a bounce from the outpouring of sympathy and despair to see a surge in support.

Attacks that will be directed to them by those presumed to be the system’s ‘flower girls’ may have some perverse effect of making their supporters feel defensive and more supportive. Furthermore, the presidential candidates will not respond with a hammer as this might lead to some kind of voter apathy, with supporters of those being attacked opting not to cast their ballot on August 8 in protest.

3.Millennial voter trends might be determining factor.
Millennial will have a bigger influence in the August 8 election. Voters under 35 years represent more than half of the newly registered voters in the country, majority of whom never participated in the party primaries due to their names missing in the 2013 IEBC register.
Millennial are known to be independent and render nonpartisan decisions with about 50% of them identified as nonpartisan. They view their vote as a unique tool wielded to represent their values rather than sticking to party lines.

They are also known to differ from their predecessors because of a general distrust in the political system. They are predisposed to assuming that those politicians supporting the current system are corrupt and they are the reasons for their predicaments.

This might lead to these set of voters rejecting leaders they believe are imposed on them by the system and come up with compromise candidates thus end up going for those who have presented themselves as independent candidates. This will be more practical if these candidates use ‘boyish image’ and social media to send a subliminal message to millennial. Then and then they have a great chance to disappoint the parties’ choices.

4. Mischievous voters.
No politician can afford to underestimate the electorate’s ability to be mischievous. Quite a good number of voters, especially the younger ones have a tendency to vote against anyone presumed to be working for the status quo due to what can be described as anger towards a broken political system. So, they will vote for other candidates, not because they agree with their ideologies, but because they can use their vote to ‘punish’ the system.

Kenyans are now more pessimistic than ever before, and instead of reforming the system, they might decide to blow it up. Economic despair and fantasy-based economic policy may be too potent a cocktail for voters in this elections for anyone to ignore. Voters may just decide to take a risk and that risk might mean independent candidates getting their way into office. 

Uphill task for the Independents.
All these notwithstanding, it is good to warn the independents that it will not be smooth sailing for them as party machinery will move into top gear to campaign for their candidates. The parties’ campaigns will be pinning a lot of hope on traditional voting patterns. The major parties have the financial might and ‘Goliathic’ political muscle to create some political euphoria and turn the August 8 elections to their favour.

The independent candidates must therefore be very convincing to win the hearts of the disgruntled electorate and promise them that they will be able to get rid of those in the system who have been doing nothing. Only they can overturn the system and this will mean putting up some extraordinary efforts to neutralise the Raila - Uhuruto wave within their regions.

Voters will simply choose their leaders based on the immediate reaction to the names they well associate with at the time of casting their vote.

People are known to be rebellious in nature and will go for anyone who promise them ‘hope and change’ and will support any candidate presumed to be competing against an establishment. Thus, the candidates’ ability to change the public’s attitude from frustration and pessimism to excitement will be their biggest investment.

To beat the system, they themselves, must create their own euphoric wave to demand from the people, the change they have really yearned for. They must also run the minds of the electorate to resist being ‘boxed’ into party loyalty that infringe on their rights.